I recently came across an article that explains why many of my fellow North Carolina GOPers are voting for McCrory using an economic theory. It also explains why his nomination might cost us the election - again.
Before Pat
Before Pat McCrory announced his candidacy - we had three candidates: Bob Orr, Bill Graham, and Fred Smith. Bill Graham started with the lead - because of the money that he spent on Gas Tax and Immigration campaigns. Then Fred Smith took the lead, because of the money he was spending on buying people BBQ sandwiches and hush puppies. Bob Orr never had the lead, because he didn’t spend the kind of money that Graham and Smith did.
The issue though was that most GOPers didn’t know these guys. And that left an opportunity for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.
Prospect Theory
In 1979, two economists: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky developed what would win them the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics - Prospect Theory. Basically, it explains how loss aversion can lead us to make choices that aren’t in our best interest (playing the lottery, Here’s the example from the article:
Subjects were told to choose between these two prospects…
Prospect 1: A 100 percent chance of losing $3000
Prospect 2: An 80 percent chance of losing $4000, but a 20 percent chance of losing nothing.Which would you choose? In the study, 92 percent of the prospects chose Prospect 2. The chance of losing nothing, even though it was improbable, was compelling enough to risk losing even more. Prospect 1, however, is likely to lose less.
And here’s the flip side:
Subjects were then told to choose between these two options:
Prospect 1: A 100 percent chance of gaining $3000
Prospect 2: An 80 percent chance of gaining $4000, but a 20 percent chance of gaining nothing.Which would you choose? In the study, 80 percent of the subjects chose Prospect 1. The guarantee of gaining something was more appealing than the prospect of gaining more. Prospect 2, however, is likely to gain more.
So what does this have to do with the Primary?
Primary voters are more attuned to the complexities of the political system. They are more likely to understand that a straight-ticket vote won’t cover judges and the President. They can give you directions to the polling place.
They are also more likely to play amateur pundit. And that is the genius of the McCrory Campaign. Likely GOP voters were backing McCrory before he even articulated why he was running. They finally had a known quantity. A person who’d won Charlotte elections more than anyone else in history. Pat McCrory is the Republican “Prospect 1″. The other candidates just feel riskier, because most voters haven’t seen much of them before the election.
But you don’t have to dig too deeply to find the flaws in that thinking.
However, McCrory won elections in Charlotte. His opposition: the Mecklenburg Democrat party. This is the bunch that botched the replacement of the Sheriff. If McCrory wins he’ll learn the hard way that the State Democrats, unlike their idiot faction in the Queen City - can walk and chew gum at the same time. We won’t have to wait for material, McCrory served it up in his video ads.
The Difference Is Cheerleadership
In his campaign appearances and his ads we get a taste of McCrory “leadership”: Taking credit for doing his job when there was no consequences, taking credit for a road trip, taking credit for something he tried but failed at, and taking credit for someone else did.
Taking credit for doing his job when it didn’t really count: In a March article in the Lincoln Tribune, McCrory tells us that he’s ready to be governor, because he called traveling on Michael Jordan as a referee. That’s what he called courage.
I’m not making this up.
According to that logic, we should be looking to the NBA’s official list instead of our public officials for the next president.
Card players know when you’re ahead - you lead with your trump card. We’ve just seen the best he’s got.
Is making a call at a ballgame enough to qualify someone to govern the 10th most populous state in the US and the 20th largest economy in the world?If he gets the nomination, the GOP has a tougher fight than they think in November.
Taking credit for a road trip: In his opening ad, Pat McCrory and a few of his friends went to Raleigh to complain about the state of things in Charlotte.
Oh, did I mention it was during his election year?
Yep, where most politicians just complain about unfunded mandates from the dais at public meetings, Pat McCrory drove to Raleigh on a bus - with some buses behind him. I’m sure his bus was in front - making it “leadership”
My question is this: Why did it take so long and why did it take a bus trip? Pat McCrory was my mayor for a few years and I was a victim of crimes (small property stuff). My former boss was mugged here on a visit when she was staying in the University area. Why couldn’t he compel the very large Mecklenburg delegation to do something about it without renting a bus?
I’m not being obtuse here. Go look at the Cheap Seats Articles for our local delegation (see NC House and NC Senate) - most of what gets them in hot water is doing stuff for the County and municipalities. Why doesn’t Mayor Pat - after his eons as Mayor - command the same service from his delegation as the Mayor of the largest city in the Carolinas that any Town Council person gets from our three?
Taking credit for something he tried but failed at: In his next ad, Pat McCrory says “I’ve used the veto pen to stop tax increases in the past…”
Not quite.
According to to the Charlotte City Council meeting minutes of the June 19, 2006 - the vote to overturn the Mayor’s veto was defeated along a party-line vote and that year’s tax increase stayed. Side note: If you read the minutes, you’ll see where the Democrats stalled long enough to make sure one of their own made it back from a trip from the Bay Area (lottery vote, anyone?)
The issue wasn’t his veto getting overturned - that’s arithmetic. This issue is how he handled another veto. He helped overturn the People’s Veto in 2001 to an uptown arena. He worked with the City and County governments to build it anyway. The issue wasn’t that it got built - why were public resources wasted on the referendum in the first place if the officials were going to do what they wanted to? Real leadership would have been a message to the public that they were elected to make decisions and they would be held accountable in November; but that would have been harder than calling traveling on Michael Jordan.
Taking credit for something someone else did: In his most recent ad, Pat McCrory touts the 287(g) program in Mecklenburg County. The program is simple: local law enforcement are given the tools to initiate a deportation on illegal immigrants that are arrested under other crimes. It’s true that the program is in place in Charlotte.
What’s interesting is that Pat McCrory had nothing to do with it.
In 2006, then Mecklenburg County Sheriff Jim Pendergraph entered into an agreement with Homeland Security to implement 287(g) in Mecklenburg County - the first time it had been done east of Phoenix. Sheriff Pendergraph was hailed as a leader and a pioneer in Immigration Enforcement by illegal immigration opponent nationwide - not Mayor McCrory. As a matter of fact, the Mackey controversy was created by the vacancy left by Pendergraph because of the job he got with ICE. A Democrat Sheriff showed enough leadership to get the attention of a Republican administration in these hyperpartisan times. I guess 30 seconds wasn’t enough time to recognize the Sheriff - his name being three syllables and all for his leadership - especially when McCrory needs to take the credit.
But hey, Mayor Pat took a tough stand. I mean if he would call traveling on Jordan - he would certainly hold contractors on public project accountable for hiring illegals.
Not quite. This from the Dome yesterday:
Do you think illegal immigrants contributed to the construction of the Bobcats arena?
I don’t know. I would make the assumption that they did. I don’t know if the contractors that we hired would agree to that or not. Not all contractors are doing it.
How about the NASCAR Hall of Fame? Do you think the city can meet the $150 million budget without illegal immigrant workers?
I don’t know. I would hope so. I think it could be. I’m making an assumption that the contractors we hire would be following the law.
To wrap this up, the one substantive proposal he talks about in any of those ads: implementing 287(g) throughout the state - probably wouldn’t possible. I would explain it; but Bob Orr does a better job in an e-mail he sent last night:
The Mayor’s tough sounding assertion ignores the fact that a committee of sheriffs and other experts is currently assessing immigration enforcement needs in all NC counties (thanks to the leadership of Senator Dole). Some counties will need all of the components of the federal program, some will need minimal federal support, some counties may not need or qualify for any support at all. I prefer to let the experts complete their work and tell us what is actually needed instead of making proclamations about state-wide programs based on incomplete information.
In November, I’ll mark my ballot for the GOP candidate whoever that may be; because the mendacity of the Perdue and the Moore campaigns are on another order of magnitude beyond any of the GOP candidates - including McCrory. However, I don’t feel that - by November - there will be enough of poor Pat that most voters will do the same as me. The reason being is that if he’s this easy to shred by some dude with a website whose pretty close to being on his side - can you imagine what the corrupt state Democrat machine will do to him?
I’ve been clear about who my guy is. He’s the only GOP candidate that’s gone toe-to-toe with the Democrats and won - repeatedly. He did such a good job at winning judges races that the Democrats changed the rules!
I would implore those of you who are voting in the GOP Primary to look into all of the candidates - (starting with mine, because the others are copying his notes).
Please don’t just vote for a guy because you saw him on TV.
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42 responses so far ↓
1 Don Yelton // Apr 10, 2008 at 3:05 am
Glad to see this post. Now McCrow has talked some of the good old politicians to back up some of his claims. But I heard that someone else in Charlotte elected as a republican stood up and talked for Pat but that same rhino was on Jim Black’s defense fund committee. spread the word
2 MarkMartin // Apr 10, 2008 at 9:58 am
Justin - In November, my plan is to mark my ballot for the GOP candidate, whoever that may be.
3 Justin Thibault // Apr 10, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Mark - Same here; but I hope I get the opportunity to vote for a candidate that has a chance of beating the Democrat.
4 Justin Thibault // Apr 10, 2008 at 12:22 pm
This is funny: I checked my e-mail during break and I noticed that there were two pro-McCrory comments under “anonymousish” names and phony e-mails.
I almost never get those usually.
Kinda funny how he’s the GOP heir apparent; but none of his supporters have the stones to use their real name.
5 Steve Smith // Apr 10, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Justin
You know how I feel about Pat McCrory. Did you know that Jim Pendergraph endorses him for Governor and that If anyone gets the credit for the immigration legislation and the ICE training that Mecklenburg County got, it should be Sue Myrick. There is no stronger supporter for legislation against illegal immigration than her. Your’e saying that Pat McCrory only won the Mayors race because he ran against the Democrats. Well is that not what you want him to do in the Governors race? I had hoped that we would not resort to the same kind of politics that Perdue and Moore have resorted too. And I will use my real name. I supported Pat before he even announced and I am glad that he is proving to be a front runner. He’s cut from the same stock that Jim Martin and Jim Holeshouser are cut from.
6 Justin Thibault // Apr 10, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Steve -
He ran against Mecklenburg Democrats - that’s different than running statewide. The Mecklenburg Dems aren’t organized enough to order a pizza. Statewide, though, Dems are a powerful force, and I think that Pat is in for an education.
Point out one thing that I’ve said that was either 1) untrue or 2) omitted any pertinent information.
The well-funded front-runner always hopes that people aren’t going to be critical of records - well, theirs at least. Are you hoping for the same courtesy from the Dems?
7 Thierry Wernaers // Apr 10, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Orr is by far the most intelligent and reasonable candidate the GOP has.
Coming from a Democrat this might not help much, so sorry Justin, but on rare occasions you’re right
8 Aaron // Apr 10, 2008 at 7:42 pm
This is a great post.
I love reading about things that I think no one else has ever paid attention to.
Prospect Theory gets me laughing because it proves itself almost every day in one form or another.
As for McCrory: It’s a good question whether he’ll be able to beat the Dem’s in the state wide race. Your point is well made about Meck County Dem’s and the sacrificial lambs that they throw up to run against him. But more important are the obvious hypocricies that Orr and others are pointing out so well that it’s almost embarrasing (or should be) to the folks in Meck County.
It’s gonna be even harder for him now that the prominent folks in Dilworth and soon to be Plaza MidWood are renting cops to keep them from being murdered after church. His whole image rests on the “tidy town” ideals that Charlotte City Government holds so dear. I doubt it will sit well with folks outside our little area of the State….
9 Steve Smith // Apr 11, 2008 at 7:24 am
Justin
I would have expected it from the Democrats. I would hope that we would not give them fuel for the fire. Never said that your comments were not true, just that they have a negative spin on them. Well, at least Thierry agrees with you this time, but that may not be a bad thing if Orr appeals to the Democrats.
10 Justin Thibault // Apr 11, 2008 at 8:22 am
Steve -
This isn’t stuff that’s hard to find, Steve.
The point that I’m making, and that gets missed by nearly everyone in the NCGOP is that the State Dems and the Local Dems are two very different animals. Local Dems in most counties can’t distinguish various their own orifices from holes in the ground. State Dems can get criminals reelected. However, we keep running our “fair haired boys” into the corrupt buzzsaw that is the North Carolina Democratic Party.
Steve, as a Republican, I - along with millions of other GOP and Unaffiliated voters - have five choices to run for Governor - I’m making the case for the one that I feel would perform most strongly in November and from 2009 to 2013 as the Governor. I’m pointing out some deficiencies in the current front runner, based on comments he’s making in his ads. If someone discovers the truth and it’s negative - is it necessary for that individual to sit on their hands? Do you just want everyone to be nice and get out of the way; because Mayor Pat couldn’t have Sue Myrick’s House seat and had to “settle” for Governor of North Carolina?
Let me ask you this question. What, in the less than 300 words in the policy section of his website, about a McCrory administration will make life better for my sons (currently 21 month and 3 months)? Can you say that his ideas and the results of his experience is superior to that of the other candidates?
The irony of Theirry’s comment is that it hurts his chances in a Primary; but helps in the General. Oh, speaking of statewide general elections: how many has McCrory won?
11 Steve Smith // Apr 11, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Justin
I just spent an hour reading from the Orr2008 Web Site and I must say I like most of his ideas. There is alot of “pie in the sky” but by and large, he talks a good game. The delivery of which will be a different story. If he gets the nomination, then defeats the Democrat in November, he’ll have one heck of a job delivering on all of the commitments that he’s made on the web site. He’s gonna fix Healthcare, Transportation, Immigration and Education and thats just on the first page of his web site. Does he realize that unlike “A Judge” as Governor he will have account for his decisions everyday and build relationships with people that he does not agree with or even like. It is likely that the Democrats will control one or both of the houses of legislature. He will no longer be able to gavel his decisions into the law review then move on to the next case
I basically have little or no problem with him but I don’t believe that he can beat the Democrats in November, but like you said, he is one of five that we can pick from and if he beats Pat then he will be my man as well…..
12 Aaron // Apr 11, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Steve,
The way you sound makes it seem as though Orr’s statements are too stringent. But Mayor Pat has all the same plans if he were to be elected, he’s just saving some wiggle room so he can double talk.
Orr outlines his plans so at least you know where he’s coming from on all fronts. With Pat, you’ll have the same two faced talk you’ve heard about for years while he’s been mayor. Taking credit for things others have done is a great campaign strategy for the majority of the voting block who are all intellectually lazy* (*copyright 2008 Cabarrus Cheap Seats)
At some point folks who take the time to read blogs like this are going to have to vote for folks who are most like the person they’d want and not who’ll stand the best chance of winning because they are the most like their opponents.
But hey, I’d say that anyone with the balls to do that would have a hard time towing the current Republican line. That is until you throw in the prospect of an Obama Presidency!
13 Justin Thibault // Apr 12, 2008 at 7:52 am
Steve - I’m still waiting on the answer to my original question to you:
Seriously, I might have to campaign for the guy after the May elections. I’d really like to know.
Yeah, Republicans never push big ideas. Cutting marginal tax rates from insane levels, standing up to Communist oppression that went from a worldwide menace to an anachronism…I forget - was that a Democrat or Republican President that pushed those “pie in the sky” ideas?
I guess Republicans aren’t in the idea business anymore. I hope the Trade and Tryon set keeps giving us money…otherwise we’re in real trouble!
Aaron -
You’re not “intellectually lazy” - just impatient.
14 Steve Smith // Apr 13, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Justin
If we are to go just on experience the Bev Perdue has it, hands down. I can’t say anything bad about Bob Orr because he makes alot of sense but I just have a feeling about the electability of McCrory over the others, just a gut feeling. But I, like you, will vote and work for the nominee.
15 Justin Thibault // Apr 13, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Steve -
You’re flat wrong. Watch this.
Quantity of Statewide Experience:
Perdue=8 years (2 terms as Lt. Governor)
Orr=18 years (an appointment and a couple of terms on the Court of Appeals and a two terms on the Supreme Court)
Advantage: Orr
Quality of Statewide Experience:
Perdue = As Lt. Gov, she held the tie-breaking vote on the lottery case. She had to take a 30 min recess to figure out what to do - following the direction of the Senate Democrat leadership.
Orr = Wrote the Supreme Court Leandro decision - a landmark case that put some teeth into the State Constitution entitlement of poor students to a quality education.
Advantage: Orr
If McCrory was the nominee, I don’t know if I could make the same case. Popularity in a metro area does not “=” electablity statewide against a formidable opponent…and Mayor Pat hasn’t seen a formidable opponent in quite some time.
16 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 2:31 am
Though the point can be made that Orr is a great candidate based on his ideas and intellectual capacity, it is hard to say that he is the best candidate, seeing as how he has never polled better than 10% in any poll I’ve seen. Rarely is the candidate with the best knowledge of policy and law actually elected. To win an election, you have to have other intangibles that are sometimes hard to put your finger on. This is why our country isn’t run by scholars and professors, but by individuals elected in some portion for their knowledge on every issue at hand, but also because of their personality, their looks, their style, and their bank account.
I’ve seen every candidate for governor this year more than I’ve seen most of my family, and I’ve also worked for two of them. Bob Orr does have the best policy ideas on paper, but that doesn’t make him the best candidate, or most electable candidate. If 90% or more of likely Republican voters have said they’d rather vote for someone else now, how can he make the swing to winning a majority, and then that not be taken up by Democrats in November? I can see the ads now, “Up until mid-April, Bob Orr had the support of less than 10% of his own party, why vote for someone now that you didn’t want to vote for 6 months ago?” Though Orr has won more statewide races than anyone else, they weren’t as big as this race, and something has to be said for that. You can’t take a guy with little name recognition, and turn him into someone people know and trust that quickly, it just won’t happen. The average citizen can’t name 2 judges, but most could identify Pat McCrory if they saw his face or heard his name. That’s a big advantage, just ask anyone with the last name Kennedy.
True, McCrory might not be a conservative knight in shining armor, but he is a friendly, and he is a Republican, and we have to get our foot back in the door sometime. I stand by the argument that there is more to being the best candidate than being elected to the bench several times and being the best versed in policy.
17 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 2:48 am
Also, prospect theory doesn’t work for this either. You don’t get a worse choice who people agree on, you get yourself an easier path to a desired end. If Smith, Graham, or Orr (I’ll humor the Orr supporters and entertain this) were to win the nomination, the party and the candidate would have to spend millions of dollars just telling everyone who the candidate is. No one knows these guys that don’t follow politics, study law, or aspire to be in upper society in Salisbury. Winning elections is about strategy, and being known is a good strategy. If McCrory wasn’t a strong candidate the system would’ve weeded him out by now (ie. Fred Thompson). I fail to see how picking someone we see as electable isn’t in our best interest, if we are still interested in winning that is.
18 Aaron // Apr 14, 2008 at 6:06 am
Plus add to the fact that the majority of Western and Eastern North Carolina Residents don’t seem to have too many nice things to say about Charlotte and you’ll get the idea that maybe the grand puba of the town they dislike might not be the strongest guy to hold up in front of them for a governors election…
19 Justin Thibault // Apr 14, 2008 at 9:38 am
Caleb - Thanks for your comments.
Here we go.
It’s a fallacy to say that 90% of the Republican voters would rather vote for someone else. When I tell people I’m working for Orr the response I normally get is: “Who?” So, I think that McCrory’s numbers have more to do with name recognition. Thanks in no small part to the
Charlotte Chambers StenographersCharlotte Observer coverage over the past decade or so.And that doesn’t bother you?
In Cabarrus County, the strongest candidate we have in any of the races is Fletcher Hartsell. Why? Because he has the best knowledge of policy and law. He’s one of a very few elected officials that when I disagree with him - I’m pretty sure that I’m wrong.
There’s plenty of instances where people cross party lines to vote for a more qualified candidate. Quite frankly, I don’t think that the GOP has been able to use the “more qualified” card in quite some time. If we run McCrory - I don’t think we’ll be able to do it convincingly.
It was bigger than the Charlotte’s mayor’s race.
That’s what they said when Orr was the first Republican judge elected statewide in the 20th Century.
No, you don’t. The one and only argument I’ve heard for running McCrory is this:
Yes, because he’s puuurty and everyone knows him - we should put him forward to govern the 10th largest state in the US and work out issues in the 20th largest economy in the world.
ROTFLMAO!
The naivete of that statement is incredible.
The Charlotte political machine puts out the best candidates? Sir, allow me to introduce you to Jim Black (D) - Mecklenburg.
Now that we’ve settled the quazi-Darwinian argument, let’s deal with brass tacks.
Pat McCrory had $400k saved up from a decade of layup races in Charlotte. What’s interesting is that he could rollover that money into the Governor’s race and go back and ask the same donors for another contribution (giving a maximum of $8k instead of $4k). I wouldn’t be surprised if his “I’m-tough-on-illegal-immigration” ad were paid for by people who benefited from the blind eye to the various city projects of dubious necessity who were kept in budget on the backs of undocumented day laborers.
He’s not as electable.
Just because someone is popular at the dawn of Spring doesn’t mean they will be the guy people pick on a rainy Tuesday in November.
The race from May to November will be a long one where both candidates will be subjected to serious scrutiny. I have doubts that Mayor Pat’s record will hold up. I’ve yet to get one message from his supporters referring to his record or his ideas will draw over Dems and Independents. I’ve just heard that’s he’s puuuuurty and a nice guy.
20 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 12:58 pm
The “system”, I was referring to wasn’t the Charlotte political machine. Fred Thompson was supposed to be the savior of the party, then he jumped in, and everyone saw he wasn’t really what all the hype was about. This took little more than a week for most of us. Thus, you are making the argument that the current front runner in the primary race is doing a grand job at pulling the wool over all of our eyes, and hiding his true, snake like qualities. Why is it that you believe that so many of us who support McCrory (and there are more McCrory supporters out there than for any other Republican Candidate) are blind and simply easily manipulated?
“Just because someone is popular at the dawn of Spring doesn’t mean they will be the guy people pick on a rainy Tuesday in November.”
Excuse me while I ROLTLMAO, or whatever.
If some of my comments are going to get laughed off as naive, I’d hope for some better reasons than this. This argument doesn’t mean anything, people just look at it and say, “Hey, that sounds good, get ‘em!” Sure he may not get the desired turnout, but does anyone ever get the turnout they hoped for? If a candidate isn’t widely popular at any point in a race (Orr, governors race 08, not any other of his previous races, because those are done now, we’re talking about this one) then why in the world would people turn out to vote for him on a rainy day in November? I’m tired of hearing about how great he did all of these other times, because right now, he isn’t doing very well, and this is the race that matters currently. If you’re going to write me off as naive, don’t do it with filler comments with no substance. I may be younger than probably anyone on here, but that doesn’t mean I don’t know what I’m talking about. I’ve done more work for the party and other conservative organizations than most people twice my age, naive about the system, I am not.
Anyway, of course its bothersome that most times we don’t elect the candidate with the best policy knowledge. But this is once again why our President isn’t a double doctorate in Foreign and Domestic policy, and the worlds leading scholar on the Economy. Since the invention of the T.V., elections are more and more a popularity contest. I’m not using this as a way to say Pat is the guy, just stating a fact about why the guy with the best brains doesn’t always win.
Also, how can we question McCrory about his digging to find the facts about the day laborers contractors may or may not use without doing the same in our day to day lives. Should we demand to enter the back of every Mcdonalds we eat at, seeing the residency status of every employee working the fryers? We are paying them for their services, so why not hold ourselves to the same standard? This same argument was played against Mitt Romney, and everyone, including the media looked at it as a cheap ploy.
In the end, we’ll all vote for the Republican candidate, so its best not to alienate those who don’t support our personal favorite. The only way to win this year is to be united. The census is coming up, and its about time we got this state drawn a little better.
21 Aaron // Apr 14, 2008 at 5:23 pm
So we should embrace a world where the lowest common denominator, i.e: the purdy one with the nice hair, should be placed ahead of the other more qualified candidates?
It seem that we should just get used to the pathetically stupid electorate instead of trying to sway it to the most qualified candidate.
And I wouldn’t get my hopes too high over McCrory. If you haven’t been more than 40 miles outside of Meck county, you’re probably not aware of the amount of Charlotte hating going on right now.
If McCrory’s the best they’ve got, most non-elitist Charlotte Republicans will likely stay home in November, regardless of what the weather is!
Papers other than the observer like to report about the runaway spending and violent crime and don’t put that nice rosy coating over it when they do…
22 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Too many other races going on for Charlotte area Republicans to stay at home. McCain, Dole, Tyson, Edmunds, McCullough, just to name a few.
Also, I’ve been outside of Meck county plenty, I’ve been going to ECU for three years, living in Greenville, and spending my summer’s doing political work in Wilmington. The Charlotte hate phenomenon is largely over-rated. I’ve been to Republican Party events in Greenville, Wilson, Kinston, Pamlico County, Raleigh, and Bethel this year, and can’t seem to find this hate everyone speaks of.
23 Aaron // Apr 14, 2008 at 6:53 pm
I’ve been to Republican Party events in Greenville, Wilson, Kinston, Pamlico County, Raleigh, and Bethel this year, and can’t seem to find this hate everyone speaks of.
Wow, if you’ve been to all those places then it must not be so huh?
Maybe it was the fact that you were surrounded by a bunch of sycophants who are the power brokers of their respective corner of the republican party or maybe it was the fact that while you’ve been in college you might have missed the light rail debacle, the shoot first ask questions later situation with Char Meck police or the National Whitewater Center issue.
Trust me; the majority of your constituency isn’t in these swanky suit and tie meetings you’ve been attending, they are in the diners of Locust, Ednyville, Lumberton and other places so far off the map that most forget about them even in an election year. They read their local papers and the blurbs about the revolving door judicial systems and yearly tax increases in Charlotte. Furthermore, in spite of all this meandering about the “electibility” of Mayor Pat; all his tax and spend habits WILL become center stage if he does get the nomination. It’s easy for Democrats to throw the arena, whitewater center, light rail and violent crime up in the face of a republican in a governors race. The reason is that they get a pass from the media and everyone else because no one expects that much common sense from your average democrat candidate. Democrats are the ultimate “doom and gloomers” and will have a heyday when they start the comparisons of what mayor Pat will do to the state education system “when you look at the CMS quagmire.”
Sure, Mayor Pat is just a shovel turner and ribbon cutter who’s done jack squat in real terms but that’s hardly a defense to the hard core criticism that the Democrat front runner will throw at him come October.
But hey, no experience and grandiose claims seem to work for Obama, so I guess nothings “impossible.”
24 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 8:07 pm
I know who the constituency is, I spent 2 months this summer going door to door to talk to voters about their concerns with the upcoming elections. I logged over 50 hours a week in my car and on foot, talking to people. Not swanky people in suits, people at their homes, in their trailers, and even elderly people who live in retirement communities. You didn’t say anything about why you know everyone hates the city of Charlotte, other than naming three small cities and talking about local newspapers. I guess it is the elite party leaders that polling companies target in the polls, right? If everyone hates him and hes so bad, then why do so many people seem to like him? The argument is being made on here that McCrory supporters don’t exist because they don’t comment on this blog. They do exist, and in larger numbers than Orr supporters, because he’s still leading in the polls. Your logic is based on your own support of McCrory, not of the State’s.
But, I must be crazy for actually seeing the way the primary race is going and commenting on the fact that, like it or not, your Republican Nominee for Governor will be Pat McCrory or Fred Smith. Thats all it comes down to. You may not like it, but take it with a lump of sugar, because even Hillary’s people can’t do the math to produce a Bill Graham or Bob Orr Nomination.
25 Aaron // Apr 14, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Then so be it Caleb: I will concede that McCrory will get the nomination. Call it whatever you want: I like to refer to the Eddy Murphy movie “The distinguished gentleman” where the old guy looks to his wife while entering the voting booth and says “Who do we usually vote for for congress?”
It may be true that McCrory has the right name and face to get the nomination. He may even have the right name and face to get 49% of the votes but that didn’t win last time I took a math class. The final point that people who haven’t jumped on the “all is well, nothing to see here bandwagon” is that McCrory will lose the general election due largely to who he is and what his record shows. Everyone knows who OJ Simpson is but he stands as much a chance of winning Governors seat as the Honorable Silver Shovel wielding Pat McCrory…
You win, but we all still lose: See how that works out?
But an electorate dumb enough to nominate McCrory based upon his haircut and name alone is not an electorate I wish to be a part of so I’ll use my brain instead of my eyes and ears and vote for the most qualified candidate and Justin has conclusively proven who that person is…
26 Aaron // Apr 14, 2008 at 8:27 pm
And lest we forget that if, and as you have so aptly stated, IF, the electorate made the intelligent choice and not the “easy” choice all of that “I’m gonna vote for whoever the republican is in the general election” would sway in favor of the candidate who was nominated. All of the money would also flow to that candidate. Then, you’d have those millions of dollars to get his name out there. You’d also have the candidate whose been to all those forums that Mayor Pat hasn’t been to. You’d have the solid record of experience and understanding of state issues. You’d have a solid background and none of those pesky skeletons in the closet nor the fear of another Jim Black or of turning the entire state into the slums that are Metro Charlotte.
But hey, I guess we should just cross our fingers and pray the democrats are too stupid to find their play book and use page’s 1-5 to thoroughly destroy McCrory’s hopes and destroy ours at the same time…
27 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Ouch, an OJ/McCrory comparison?
You don’t really need a magnifying glass to see that you don’t like the guy, but I hope that you would concede he’d be better than Purdue or Moore. His record may not be the best, but neither is John McCain’s (the guy that coauthored a bill that limits free speech and is grossly unconstitutional, McCain/Feingold).
I didn’t start commenting on this blog to be McCrory’s spokesman or even try to sway anyone here to vote for him. I just wanted to point some things out. I also really believe he has a better shot in November than any other candidate. Maybe I’m wrong, but a 49% showing, if thats what it turns out to be, is better than the 32% we’d get with any other candidate. A loss is a loss, correct, so we should all do our part to come together after our primary and get to work on the task at hand.
28 Justin Thibault // Apr 14, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Caleb - I see that you’ve met Aaron - our resident Republitarian
No, I’m not saying that. Refer to the close of the post:
Nobody has told me that they are voting for Pat McCrory because they believe he would make a better Governor. They are only backing for him because he’s already popular. I would love to hear a case as to why his ideas or policies will make him the superior candidate in November - because there’s a healthy probability that I’ll have to make it.
Yes, I’m just spoiling the Party.
Again, let me ask you the same question that Steve hasn’t gotten around to asking. Here it is:
Seriously, am I using words that are too big or something?
Caleb, the issue is that there are those of us that are tired of voting for some middling candidate because they have an “R” by their name. While it’s true that’s life in a political coalition - I think that the election of 2006 has told all of us that we’ve been campaigning hard enough - we must produce better candidates.
29 Caleb Seamone // Apr 14, 2008 at 8:56 pm
I agree with you when you say you’re tired of voting for a middling candidate. I’m still not happy that John McCain is the man with his name on our ballot instead of someone who is actually a conservative. I’ve not even fully made up my mind on who I’ll mark come may in the Governor’s box, I’m just trying to take all things into consideration, and I’d like to vote for someone I think has a shot at it.
Trust me, you’ll never have to preach to me about needing better candidates. You’d be hard pressed to find a handful of people as politically conservative as me that have come out of Concord High School in the past 10 years, ask Liz Poole, who is also a friend of mine. I’ll say it again, I’m not here campaigning for any of the governor’s candidates, just wanted to point some things out.
I look forward to contributing more often, that is, if I haven’t stepped on too many toes trying to defend the “undefendable”.
30 Aaron // Apr 14, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Hey Caleb, welcome to the cheap seats!! It’s all in good fun! But you can’t call yourself a true Cheap Seats reader until you’ve been smacked by Mr Starnes. Heres hoping you never befall that fate. Just the grammatical translations are more time consuming than my average day at work…
Bottom Line: If you like discussing stuff: you’ve come to the right place on the net!
31 Steve Smith // Apr 16, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Justin
I’m not saying that Orr is a bad candidate or that is is not the best choice but like Caleb said, he not looking very good in the polls and if we are to beat the Dems in November we cannot spend our time tearing each other to pieces like Moore and Perdue. We must present a united front behind the candidate who can win in November. Caleb is right this time!!!!! Even though he is a young “whippersnapper”….
32 Justin Thibault // Apr 16, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Steve - So, you’d rather vote based on a poll where more than a quarter say they are firmly undecided and 50+% say they might vote for someone else for a guy whose candidacy has little substance over a guy who has statewide experience and is a veteran of several statewide campaigns? This in an election that will probably go into a run-off anyway?
Also, why does our basis for unity has to be statistics? If everyone followed your logic - McCain wouldn’t have been the nominee. It would have been another kinda-Republican mayor.
Again, tell me what you’re voting for in McCrory. Remember, I might have to make this case, too.
33 Caleb Seamone // Apr 16, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Whippersnapper? Perhaps this word is lost to my generation, but it means unimportant and insignificant. Thanks Steve.
34 Steve Smith // Apr 16, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Caleb
Strickly said “tongue in cheek” thats why the ” ” marks. Didn’t mean to offend. Used only as a term of endearment…
Justin
Like Caleb said, he is popular, friendly and pruuuty. I know you’ve been around long enough to know that these are the things that make candidates popular. Elections are, in fact, popularity contests, not who is the smartest, most educated or would do the best job. It is who can win the beauty contest and Pat’s the one this time.
35 Caleb Seamone // Apr 17, 2008 at 2:13 am
Steve
no offense taken. I was beginning to think I was the only person in here that thought Pat actually had a shot.
Justin
I’ll work on getting that question you want answered. I won’t have much time to research and write too much over the next 2 weeks, as it is finals season, but you make a point, we’re gonna have to campaign for him probably, so we’d better get well versed on his issues. I know you’re gonna come back at me with how they aren’t clearly stated, and Orr’s are, but I’ll do my best to come up with what I can, when time allows it.
36 Justin Thibault // Apr 17, 2008 at 6:51 am
Caleb - It’s rather pathetic that you have to research to explain why you’re backing a candidate. But the fact that you’ll bother to do research puts you ahead of some of the candidates we have for County Commissioner.
I can explain why I’m backing Orr in a 20 sec “Elevator Speech”. I’ve been asking the “what makes McCrory’s policies better” question for six days; because it’s a trick question: McCrory has no ideas.
Just putting a Republican in the Governor’s office won’t change a thing unless that person brings ideas and credibility in Raleigh - both of which Orr has on both sides of the aisle. Every time I talk to a Republican who knows who Orr is the response is usually “Yeah, he’s a great guy” (unless it’s someone from the Chamber crowd who says “He’ll take our taxpayer-funded giveaways away”) and every time I talk to a Democrat they say “He’s smart - I wish he were on our side”.
I’ve worked my way through college and have a very demanding career. I run this thing which my wife believes is a black hole of time. I have two small children. I’m a deacon at a church where deacons have to actually do something. I don’t have time nor the motivation to back a generic Republican.
We need to send a fighter to Raleigh, and I don’t think where you can point to one instance were Mayor Pat ever fought for a damn thing except for a photo op.
I guess I just identify with Orr. When I started this thing back in 2005, corrupt forces in local politics had most people believing that the status quo would remain. That good people could never could get on the agenda. That the dialog would never be based on the truth. After serving some time on a local board - I knew what was going on around me was wrong. I spent the following two years catching A LOT of flack and facing a lot of losses. However, when the truth came out all that work paid off big. Here’s a result: there’s not one candidate that can be identified with Coy Privette and his shoulder monkeys. Rumor is that one of them tried to run, but nobody would give him a dime. I think it would be hard to argue that this blog doesn’t have a little something to do with that.
What does this have to do with Orr? I’ve got a lot of respect for a guy that can face the number of setbacks that he has and is running hard in spite of what the armchair pundits and statisticians say. If Pat McCrory becomes Governor, the criminal legislator won’t feel the least bit threatened; because he’ll be hopping around the globe “looking for jobs for North Carolinians” and making nice with them so that everyone will feel comfortable. If Bob Orr becomes Governor, the powers-that-be will be afraid; and given the scandals of late - that’s something I can back, regardless of the latest Democrat poll.
When you only fight the fights you can win and quit fighting the fights that need winning, you have no chance of true victory - just tolerable compromise.
37 Aaron // Apr 17, 2008 at 11:04 am
Mark: You get a gold star!
That’s probably been Justin’s point all along: THIS IS THE PRIMARY!
Its up to REPUBLICANS to choose who they think is the BEST candidate to REPRESENT THEIR PARTY in the general election. This is about the person whose views, policies and experience will best represent the people and the future of this state.
People who are jumping on the McCrory bandwagon simply because they know his name or worse, those who are doing so in hopes that other folks will know his name in November are missing the point of the primary.
I think Caleb’s statements about who will end up winning the primary might just be accurate simply because of that very reason: People know who McCrory is. I’ve argued that the reason folks know his name isn’t because he’s been a shining example of anything more than cronyism and silver shovel/big scissor handling. Most folks not in the 4 counties that surround Meck don’t have too high an opinion of Charlotte from what I’ve gathered over 4 years of traveling them extensively.
This election may well define my remaining even a registered republican. A change to Unaffilliated might be in my future if the members of the party can’t find the Balls to stand up for what their party was built on and stop pandering to either Religious Activists or Sissy Moderate’s.
This is the best chance you’ll have to elect a solid Republican who has proven he can beat out the status quo of Democrats in control. When you compare the field of republicans (and don’t pay attention to polls which any freshman statistics student can tell you are sketchy at best) the choice is crystal clear. Orr has the experience in every single area. Orr has the best policies.
As a person who still has the “r” next to his name but leans heavily libertarian for most everything except Foreign Policy and Immigration are concerned I can tell you that it’s better to stand with your principles that to fall with your compromises. 4 more years of a liberal in office is something we should be used to by now.
So I ask you: Are you willing to rest the future of the party on Mayor Pat this early in the election year?
38 Caleb Seamone // Apr 17, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Pat McCrory’s candidacy for governor as the downfall of the republican party? That seems to be slightly over dramatic. Just because Orr has great policies that shine on paper, doesn’t mean he can get them passed. He will clash with the legislature, so grandeur hopes of a transformed state are a little far fetched. I would even argue that being a mayor better prepares you for the governor’s mansion, as you are a chief executive of a governing body.
We have economic issues in this State, and I think McCrory would do a fine job recruiting new jobs. Like him or not, Charlotte has turned into a banking mecca in the past 10 years. Also the nascar hall of fame was wooed to the area. What experience providing for an economy does Orr have? How many jobs did he create while sitting on the bench? Just because someone may be scholarly when it comes to thinking up legislation, doesn’t mean they have what it takes to execute it or get it passed.
McCrory is also doing very well because when he speaks to people, he talks about gang legislation, which is also a problem in the state. I have friends here in Greenville that have been mugged and assaulted by gang members. These gangs are spreading, and its obvious to see that. Solid gang legislation is needed, and no one has touched it yet, so this issue is also hitting home with voters. You don’t need a 5 paragraph dissertation to know that this is important, just look around.
Check McCrory’s website if you haven’t in the past couple of days. He’s added a lot more under his issues section. Check it out. I’m sure this will yield long posts discrediting his theories as bad and out of touch, but they closesly mirror everyone else’s plans.
Also, its not pathetic that I have to research a candidate. I know why I support him, Its just important to research other critical issues to be able to dictate them to others.
After the primary, we have to stop trashing the name of the winner, if it is indeed McCrory, or any of the others. If this is picked up by anyone, it will be shown as weakness and lead to defeat. It is important to remember that we are going to have to be unified on day ONE after the primary, not take weeks or more to come back together.
39 Justin Thibault // Apr 17, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Caleb - I want to be very clear about something. Pat McCrory did not create ONE JOB in Charlotte. The businesses in Charlotte did. Charlotte was on of the largest banking centers in the country when my family moved here about 20 years ago. Charlotte’s economic prowess has more to do with the work of people like Bill Lee (Duke Power) and Hugh McColl (NCNB -> NationsBank -> Bank of America) than any elected official. Period.
As far as wooing the NASCAR Hall of Fame… Caleb, that’s probably the biggest issue I have with the guy. He threw taxpayer dollars at a museum to promote a private entity while there were (and are) serious public policy issues.
As for the gang problem, yes, he’s gotten a lot of publicity. The root cause though is that criminals aren’t getting punished, and there are myriad motivators behind that. Take for instance, underfunding our courts and jail system while money is redirected at “attracting businesses” and “neato stuff” (HT: Aaron) like NASCAR museums and arenas for media moguls.
I really get a kick how, in your previous post, you chide the Cabarrus County Commissioners for providing infrastructure for a research campus that will provide thousands of high paying jobs and for fixing roads around a major thoroughfare in the part of the County; but are positively breathless in your support for someone who actually has thrown public money at private entities and pledges to do more of the same if elected.
40 Aaron // Apr 17, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Where to begin?????
OK, Here’s a start:
We have economic issues in this State, and I think McCrory would do a fine job recruiting new jobs.
And what has the shovel turner done to bring one single job to Meck County??? Absolutely nothing! In fact, his employer: Duke Energy is eliminating positions and outsourcing them to Contractors who pay lower wages than their counter parts at a rate where the contractors can barely keep up!
The only thing a government can do to create jobs is: 1. GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY and 2. Be receptive to making the changes needed and upgrades needed when they offer to come to our state.
Thusfar Meck County has done a decent job of that for the mega banks but to the detriment of EVERY business outside of I-277. Need I mention the Arena, Light Rail, Imaginon, and yes the beloved Nascar Museum… THAT THEY PAID MMMILLIONS OF Dollars to a BBBillionaire to get!
Furthermore, this area was home to the big banks long before 1998. The BOA tower is almost 20 years old. But when they all start laying off in droves in the next few months, that will echo louder than all the things he’s never done to get them here.
Now, lest we forget that the projections to keep crime at its CURRENT levels will require 4500 more jail beds in Meck County. Given all the tax increases that have been levvyed against the Charlotte folks, how’s it going to play when yet another one goes into effect to pay for a basic services like, I dont know, public safety. And since his latest re-election, he’s been very very quiet on the subject of crime inspite of the growing voilence.
He’s thrown his hat in with Darrell Steven’s the worlds most inept police chief and his dont ask don’t tell immigration policy, his “shoot now ask questions later, nothing to see here” internal affairs stance and his “statistics don’t mean anything” form of Com Stat reporting.
Charlotte is the 8th most Dangerous city in the United States and ranks near the bottom in terms of livability according to many studies, most notably, Forbes Magazine.
As for his “gang legislation” he’s done jack squat in terms of public safety. He’s a figure head who has plenty of wiggle room in any issue. Blame the voters and blame city council whenever it’s most convenient.
Solid gang legislation is needed, and no one has touched it yet, so this issue is also hitting home with voters.
No, it’s not needed.
Further criminalizing already criminal activities has always been an abyzmal failure. What we need is more prisons, more judges and more prosecuters for a start. After the backlog is cleared we’ll need still more prisons, judges and prosecuters. We don’t need another 30 reams of paper that sits on a judges bookshelf never to be looked at much less enforced…
The bottom line is that he isn’t the candidate he’s painted himself to be. He’s the typical mayor who is nothing more than the face of a government. He’s got a nice face and nice hair, he’s done a banner job of being said face of said government.
As for his policies: Remember that 400k he had left over from his last campaign? That’ll buy plenty of “experts” to make you sound smart. As for his track record: It will be fodder in debates for the entire season.
The bullet point is that he’s not the most qualified. I don’t want a “uniter” who unites by backing whatever lamebrain scheme comes out of the Democrat controlled legislature. Thus far, McCrory’s differed from Democrat city council on so few occasions it’s become comical.
I want a vocal, proven leader who truly understands what’s going on. I also want someone who will do what’s necessary rather than what’s easy. McCrory’s entire political career is wrapped up in the latter, therefore he’s not the candidate for me.
And yes, after the primary, I’ll probably vote for whichever republican is running unless there’s a libertarian candidate that can cull enough votes to get the ballot opened up for the future elections but I don’t have to support it nor do I have to give one more red cent to any candidate with an “R” next to his name simply because it’s not a “D”.
41 Caleb Seamone // Apr 17, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I don’t have the time or energy to take up every issue you guys have with him, when in the end, you’re two votes he’d never get in the primary anyway.
I never said I didn’t agree with the Commission on loaning the money for the research facility, I just pointed out it was millions of dollars we’re spending, on top of the millions for Bruton, as well as losing jobs. I never said it was a good or bad idea.
As far as government getting out of the way, thats true, that its the best way to lure jobs. But our current governor hasn’t done a thing to get in the way or out of the way of business, and left it to itself, and we’re in the same old situation we’ve always been in. Drastically poor in the east, pretty damn poor in the west, and suffering job losses in the piedmont. What was it that everyone was saying on the commissioners forum, “grow jobs from within?”. I don’t think Pat has chased jobs out of the city.
Also, I’m not breathless in support of the guy, its just no one else on here would stand to defend him, and seeing as how he’s the frontrunner, and the likely nominee, someone should at least try.
Just after the primary, ask yourself if you honestly believe he’d be worse for the state than Purdue or Moore. If you believe that, then you’re on the wrong side anyway. I personally met and spoke with Newt Gingrich two weeks ago at a fundraiser I worked at in Bethel, and he told me he’d rather disagree with an elected republican 40% of the time, then an elected democrat 99% of the time. Meeting him was something that I’ll never forget, and I’ll never forget him saying that to me. Keep that in mind post primary. I’ll stop playing devil’s advocate, because I know I won’t change any of your votes, I’m just asking for unity when its all said and done.
42 Steve Smith // Apr 17, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Justin
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